The most awaited event after the State Legislative Elections or the Vidhan Sabha Elections is the day of the exit poll. The Election Commission had permitted for the release of the exit poll results, only after the successful completion of voting in the five states. The five states that constituted for the Vidhan Sabha elections were Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana. The voting process concluded in Rajasthan and Telangana yesterday after which the exit polls started pouring in.
Understanding EXIT POLLS
An election exit poll records the vote of the voters immediately after their exit from the polling station. Don’t confuse with Exit poll and opinion poll. Opinion poll aims to know the intention of the voter, as in, which they plan to vote. Whereas, exit polls keep an account of whom the voter actually voted for. Several survey agencies namely: Times Now – CNX, ABP News – CSDS, India Today – Axis, and Republic TV – CVoter, and Today Chanakya, etc. analyze and predict the exit polls. Though the exit polls do not guarantee a hundred percent accuracy, yet they prepare the masses and the politicians for the unexpected results.
This year Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly Elections are in two phases, the first phase on November 12, 2018, and the second phase on November 20, 2018. Under the able leadership of Dr.Raman Singh, BJP is the current ruling party in the state. In accordance with the exit polls flashed out yesterday, BJP might have a tough time in retaining its position in the state. The total number of seats being contested for in the state is 90. Of which the majority mark is 46. As per exit poll, BJP will win on 41 seats, Congress to grab 43 seats while the others would have to satisfy themselves with 6 seats.
The Madhya Pradesh Legislative elections are on November 28, 2018. For the last 15 years theBJP government, under the Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan have had a firm hand on the state. The question to ponder upon is: Will Shivraj’s magic still continues? The exit poll answers it very well. As per the poll of the exit poll Congress is at par with BJP and is likely to give it a cut-throat competition. The number of seats contested was 230. To ensure victory, a political party must have a majority mark of 116. The poll of exit poll predicts the number of seat allotment as BJP – 109, Congress – 111 and others – 10.
Rajasthan has been following an unusual trend from the last many years. It has never brought to power a ruling party back to power for two consecutive terms. Following this trend, it was quite predictable that the baton from BJP-led Vasundhara Raje would shift to Sachin Pilot, the Congress candidate. The exit poll coveys the same. After the voting process that concluded on November 07, 2018, the poll of the exit poll estimated Congress to have an edge over BJP by grabbing 100 seats. On the contrary, BJP and others to have 78 and 11 seats respectively. The election was contested for 199 seats, with a majority of 100.
On Friday, December 07, 2018, Telangana recorded voting of 67%. Soon after the voting concluded and the results of the polls started flowing in, it was pretty clear that the K Chandrashekhar Rao(KCR) – led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is likely to come back to power with a massive win of 67 seats. Whereas BJP and Congress to gain 5 seats and 39seats respectively. The number of seats contested for was 119, wherein a ruling party must have a majority of 100 seats.
The Legislative Assembly election in Mizoram was held on November 28, 2018. About 73% of the 7.68 lakh voters had exercised their right to vote. As per the poll of the exit poll Congress can be seen losing its last state in the northeastern states. The election was undertaken for 40 constituencies and victory will be awarded to a party that gains a majority of 21 seats. Till now, Congress is expected to seize 16 seats, MNF to have 18 seats while BJP would remain with their accounts closed.
While this was just an estimate by the several survey agencies. The real situation would be clear on December 11, 2018when the final results would be declared.